July 1, 2008

RMB and the dollar -- falling off a cliff

5y-rmb-dollar.bmp

Look at that! Doesn't it look like RMB and dollar held hands, ran as fast as they could, and then lept of a cliff? It makes me think about gravity models of trade...

Inflation in the U.S. has been kept at bay in part because of low tradable prices due to China holding the RMB-Dollar exchange rate constant (increasing the demand for dollars by buying up US treasuries and selling RMB), but it has been creeping up ever since China loosened its unofficial peg to the dollar. It's got a ways to go before RMB-dollar hits about 4-1 based on my own gut feelings of purchasing price parity. But if it keeps going -- the way it has for the last three years -- that'll come very soon. If I were a real estate broker in Malibu or NYC, I'd be learning Chinese or Russian.*

The devaluation of the Dollar also means we're going to be importing inflation (among other causes such as our loose monetary policy to save our banks and increases in commodity prices) and that's why I tell myself that I need my dollars in real assets like old motorcycles.

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Also, I feel pretty good about what I said back in May, 2005.

* Because the Europeans are more better well-spoken than we is.

February 8, 2008

Electability?

Surprisingly good analogy by David Brooks.

Questions for Dr. Retail By DAVID BROOKS

QUESTION: Dr. Retail, now that the Democratic presidential race has entered its long, bloody slog phase, I figured it was time to get a fresh perspective. Can you explain to me what it’s all about?

DR. RETAIL: Why do you bother me with simple problems? Listen, the essential competition in many consumer sectors is between commodity providers and experience providers, the companies that just deliver product and the companies that deliver a sensation, too. There’s Safeway, and then there is Whole Foods. There’s the PC, and then there’s the Mac. There are Holiday Inns, and there are W Hotels. There’s Walgreens, and there’s The Body Shop.

Hillary Clinton is a classic commodity provider. She caters to the less-educated, less-pretentious consumer. As Ron Brownstein of The National Journal pointed out on Wednesday, she won the non-college-educated voters by 22 points in California, 32 points in Massachusetts and 54 points in Arkansas. She offers voters no frills, just commodities: tax credits, federal subsidies and scholarships. She’s got good programs at good prices.

Barack Obama is an experience provider. He attracts the educated consumer. In the last Pew Research national survey, he led among people with college degrees by 22 points. Educated people get all emotional when they shop and vote. They want an uplifting experience so they can persuade themselves that they’re not engaging in a grubby self-interested transaction. They fall for all that zero-carbon footprint, locally grown, community-enhancing Third Place hype. They want cultural signifiers that enrich their lives with meaning.

Obama offers to defeat cynicism with hope. Apparently he’s going to turn politics into a form of sharing. Have you noticed that he’s actually carried into his rallies by a flock of cherubs while the heavens open up with the Hallelujah Chorus? I wonder how he does that.

QUESTION: But why would Democratic votes break down so starkly along educational lines?

DR. RETAIL: The consumer marketplace has been bifurcating for years! It’s happening because the educated and uneducated lead different sorts of lives. Educated people are not only growing richer than less-educated people, but their lifestyles are diverging as well. A generation ago, educated families and less-educated families looked the same, but now high school graduates divorce at twice the rate of college graduates. High school grads are much more likely to have kids out of wedlock. High school grads are much more likely to be obese. They’re much more likely to smoke and to die younger.

Their attitudes are different. High school grads are much less optimistic than college grads. They express less social trust. They feel less safe in public. They report having fewer friends and lower aspirations. The less educated speak the dialect of struggle; the more educated, the dialect of self-fulfillment

Did you hear the message of Clinton’s speech Tuesday night? It’s a rotten world out there. Regular folks are getting the shaft. They need someone who’ll fight tougher, work harder and put loyalty over independence.

Then did you see the Hopemeister’s speech? His schtick makes sense if you’ve got a basic level of security in your life, if you’re looking up, not down. Meanwhile, Obama’s people are so taken with their messiah that soon they’ll be selling flowers at airports and arranging mass weddings. There’s a “Yes We Can” video floating around YouTube in which a bunch of celebrities like Scarlett Johansson and the guy from the Black Eyed Peas are singing the words to an Obama speech in escalating states of righteousness and ecstasy. If that video doesn’t creep out normal working-class voters, then nothing will.

QUESTION: Your cynicism is really interfering with my vibe. I don’t think you’re feeling the fierce urgency of now.

DR. RETAIL: Believe me, those of us who bill by the hour completely feel the fierce urgency of now. As John Edwards would say, this is personal with me.

QUESTION: So does this mean the Democrats are fundamentally divided?

DR. RETAIL: Why do you political people always think in either/or terms? No. Safeway and Whole Foods people shop in each other’s stores. They just feel less at home.

QUESTION: So who’s going to win?

DR. RETAIL: Observe the marketplace. The next states on the primary calendar have tons of college-educated Obamaphile voters. Maryland is 5th among the 50 states, Virginia is 6th. But later on, we get the Hillary-friendly states. Ohio is 40th in college education. Pennsylvania is 32nd.

But it’ll still be tied after all that. The superdelegates will pick the nominee — the party honchos, the deal-makers, the donors, the machine. Swinging those people takes a level of cynicism even Dr. Retail can’t pretend to understand. That’s Tammany Hall. That’s the court at Versailles under Louis XIV.

I disagree with the conclusion. Once it goes to the superdelegates it will be a question of electability because superdelegates, being elected Democrat officials and other party affiliates have in their self-interest more so than the regular voter to pick the candidate that will increase Democratic control in Washington Those who vote Obama will say he's more electable and will bring a majority to the house and senate with him. If Obama loses, people will dismiss Hillary supporters as she wouldn't've stood a chance. But if Hillary loses, Obama superdelegates will commit mutiny. But there's the possibility that Hillary wins, right? What if Hillary wins? Nothing will change in Blue states and no gains will be made in Purple or Red states. Based on these considerations I think the superdelegates will vote Obama in larger numbers than are predicted. And I shop both Walmart and Wholefoods with equal comfort.

December 5, 2007

Becoming smart -- 90% effort?

This Sci-Am article suggests the right kind of encouragement and mindset are important in overcoming challenges for kids and adults. I tend to agree; although, I've seen some hard working students in my class struggle with conceptual problems while others who just "get" it.

At times, the intellectual hurdle seems too high to them and students think the effort required might as well be infinite; and therefore, they give up before they understand a concept or solve the problem. But it's exactly at those times where a little bit of extra effort can see real payoffs. That's something I've forgotten about lately too and could use the reminder. Note to self:

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=the-secret-to-raising-smart-kids&print=true

October 26, 2007

Why the big moon?

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Moon as seen behind the co-op in Davis.

July 16, 2007

Stuff to Learn

Prior to today, I didn't think the following was possible. What does this have to do with econometrics? I was never that interested in maximum entropy estimation and I don't know much about it, but the following image is maximum entropy applied to image data. Now I'm interested.

Picture2.jpgPicture1.jpg
Maximum Entropy Data Consultants, http://www.maxent.co.uk/

The following fact by way of Mario Juric:

While most people can see with a resolution of 1’, the image on our retina is blurred through a PSF of width as large as 5’ due to various effects (the largest being chromatic aberration).

And while we still struggle with finding optimal deconvolution algorithms, the brain happily performs the procedure on a 8500x5400 (43Mpix) image, a few times per second, ~17 hours a day, 365 days a year.
MacKay (2003)
Tidwell (1995), http://www.hitl.washington.edu/publications/tidwell/ch3.html

Von Neumann

- From Probabililty Theory: The Logic of Science by E.T. Jaynes

Many people are fond of saying, "They will never make a machine to replace the human mind, it does many things which no machine could ever do." A beautiful answer to this was given by J. von Neumann in a talk on computers given in Princeton in 1948, which the writer was privileged to attend. In reply to the canonical question from the audience "But of course, a mere machine can't really think, can it?", he said: "You insist that there is something a machine cannot do. If you will tell me precisely what it is that a machine cannot do, then I can always make a machine which will do just that!"

March 25, 2007

Internet in China

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I'm staying at a hotel called "Orange Hotel" in Beijing. Sign next to the ethernet plug in my room reads, "Reminder from Orange Man. Please don't view any website includes information of gambling or eroticism. Please don't spread any information against the society."

How long will these signs be seen in China? How long will awkward grammar be seen? 10years? 5 years?


I'd guess 7.5 years, after which they will seem quaint.

March 22, 2007

Baby Monster

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The smallest, slowest monster. Ducati M600

January 27, 2007

IN-N-OUT burgers, God's comfort food

I've always wondered which part of the Bible IN-N-OUT was trying to get me to read while slurping on a chocolate shake. They're printed on the burger and fries holders: NAHUM 1:7; PROVERBS 3:5, REVELATION 3:20 among others I suppose. So I looked them up.

REVELATIONS 3:20 - Behold, I stand at the door, and knock: if any man hear my voice, and open the door, I will come in to him, and will sup with him, and he with me.

PROVERBS 3:5 - Trust in the LORD with all thine heart; and lean not unto thine own understanding.

NAHUM 1:7 - The LORD is good, A stronghold in the day of trouble, And He knows those who take refuge in Him.

I guess these quotes are comforting. As comforting as a good burger, fries and a Coke in times of hunger and strife.

Cournot Equilibrium @ the Pub

Last night at Sophia's, the local bar and Thai restaurant in Davis, everyone was yelling at each other because it was Friday night and I was smack dab in the middle of a bar. So it's expected that I leave with a ring in my ear. But what if everybody could talk at a moderate voice? Wouldn't that be better? You would still be able to hear what someone within high-fiving distance was saying and my throat would be less sore and my ears would have thanked you.

Isn't this the classic externality? It's not unlike pollution and traffic congestion in that we don't internalize the cost of our actions when speaking in the local pub. When I raise my voice so that I can be heard, it makes it slightly harder for the table next to me to continue their conversation at a reasonable volume and so they raise their volume, and in no time I'm screaming and you only see my mouth move. Maybe Italians and Spaniards have had it worse and so have developed elaborate gestures to make up for the loss of vocalization in such situations? My gesture repretoire is inadequate for communication, so please don't be offended if I politely leave you to your drinking.

September 3, 2006

China Environment Watch - Sugai

September 4, 2006 NY Times Rules Ignored, Toxic Sludge Sinks Chinese Village By JIM YARDLEY

URAD QIANQI, China Dark as soy sauce, perfumed with a chemical stench, the liquid waste from two paper mills overwhelmed the tiny village of Sugai. Villagers tried to construct a makeshift dike, but the toxic water swept it away. Fifty-seven homes sank into a black, polluted lake.

The April 10 industrial spill, described by five residents of the village in Inner Mongolia, was a small-scale environmental disaster in a country with too many of them. But Sugai should have been different. The two mills had already been sued in a major case, fined and ordered to upgrade their pollution equipment after a serious spill into the Yellow River in 2004.

The official response to that spill, praised by the state-run news media, seemed to showcase a new, tougher approach toward pollution until the later spill at Sugai revealed that local officials had never carried out the cleanup orders. Now, the destruction of Sugai is a lesson in the difficulty of enforcing environmental rules in China.

The smell made me want to vomit, one villager said recently, as he showed the waist-high watermark on the remains of his home. There is no shortage of environmental laws and regulations in China, many of them passed in recent years by a central government trying to address one of the worst pollution problems in the world. But those problems persist, in part, because environmental protection is often subverted by local protectionism, corruption and regulatory inefficiency.

Even as many domestic and international environmental groups now credit China with beginning to take the environment seriously, pollution is actually worsening in some crucial categories. Emissions of sulfur dioxide, the building block of acid rain, rose by 27 percent between 2000 and 2005; government projections had called for a 20 percent reduction.

It is clear the conflict between economic growth and environmental protection is coming to a head, said Zhou Shengxian, director of the State Environmental Protection Administration, or SEPA, according to the official New China News Agency.

The broader tension of balancing environmental protection with fast economic growth is not likely to ease. China wants to double the size of its economy by 2020. And yet Mr. Zhou did not hesitate to assign much of the blame for the undercutting of pollution control efforts to corruption and fraud by local officials.

Despite its rising public profile, the State Environmental Protection Administration remains one of the weakest agencies in the central government bureaucracy and has sought to increase its regulatory powers. For years, it has complained that local environmental protection bureaus are accountable to local officials rather than the state agency. This has meant that local regulators had to answer to mayors or other local officials who may have had financial or other interests in protecting polluting industries.

In early August, SEPA announced that it would establish 11 regional offices to monitor pollution problems better. The agency also announced that local officials eligible for promotion would be judged on their pollution track record, in addition to how well they deliver economic growth.

Public disgust over pollution is growing. In May, the official English-language newspaper China Daily reported that more than 50,000 disputes and protests arose in 2005 over pollution. Public complaints to the national environmental administration rose by 30 percent.

We have heard many complaints saying. no clean official, no clean water, Zhang Lijun, a deputy director at SEPA, told China Daily.

Here in Urad Qianqi, a city along the Yellow River that encompasses Sugai, officials delayed for almost five weeks before finally refusing to be interviewed about the spill. Provincial officials also declined to talk, as did administrators with the paper mills and the local irrigation district.

In July, a reporter, photographer and researcher for The New York Times visited the village after being warned it was under official watch to prevent outsiders from entering. After nightfall, a sedan without license plates pursued the Timess hired car and tried to force it to the side of the road. The Times's car escaped to a highway but was later stopped by the police, who questioned the driver for about three hours.

Even without official cooperation, the basic chronology of the Sugai spill can be reconstructed through interviews with villagers, the handful of accounts in the Chinese news media and reports issued by the environmental agency.

For decades, the two factories, Saiwai Xinghuazhang Paper Company and Meili Beichen Paper Company, dumped their toxic sludge directly into the Yellow River. Five years ago, the introduction of new regulations ended that dumping, and factories began pumping the waste instead into a long drainage canal connected to the region's intricate irrigation and flood protection system.

But in June 2004, the commission that regulates the irrigation system decided to address rising water levels in the system by dumping polluted canal water into the Yellow River. The release created a pollution slick that killed tens of thousands of fish and plunged the downstream city of Baotou into a drinking water crisis that lasted several days.

Industrial accidents are common in China. Millions of residents in Harbin, in northeastern China, were forced to depend on bottled water after a major benzene spill contaminated the Songhua River last November. During the first four months of 2006, SEPA reported another 49 major industrial accidents and illegal pollution discharges. A study it released last month found that roughly 80 percent of China's 7,555 more heavily polluting factories are located on rivers, lakes or in heavily populated areas.

Continue reading "China Environment Watch - Sugai" »

September 1, 2006

Blog about China-U.S. relationship

http://the88s.blogsome.com/

for example:
in lawed
dinner with a chinese neocon
9 men who run China

Another good political blog about China:
http://chinesepolitics.blogspot.com/

August 23, 2006

Chinese Media Watch

This is from news.xinhua.net

If you've ever watched or listened to news reports in China, it comes bundled with an austere tone denoting the seriousness of China's current events. Along with news of officials visiting foreign dignataries, economic/business news, drought in SiChuan, is an article on the infamous Osama Bin Laden!

Bin Laden wants to marry Whitney Houston

BEIJING, Aug. 22 (Xinhuanet) -- Al-Qaeda chief and the world's most dreaded terrorist Osama bin Laden had a crush on American singer Whitney Houston and wanted to make her his wife after killing her husband Bobby Brown.

Al-Qaeda chief and the world's most dreaded terrorist Osama bin Laden had a crush on American singer Whitney Houston and wanted to make her his wife after killing her husband Bobby Brown. The suggestion is made by Sudanese poet and novelist Kola Boof, 37, who claims she was bin Laden's sex slave for four months 10 years ago.

The suggestion is made by Sudanese poet and novelist Kola Boof, 37, who claimed she was bin Laden's sex slave for four months 10 years ago.

In her autobiography Diary of a Lost Girl, excerpted in the magazine Harpers' Bazaar, she writes: "He told me Whitney Houston was the most beautiful woman he'd ever seen."

Boof, who claimed bin Laden raped her and held her prisoner in a Moroccan hotel, said he could not stop talking about the songbird, even though he disapproved of music.

"He said that he had a paramount desire for Whitney Houston, and although he claimed music was evil he spoke of someday spending vast amounts of money to go to America and try to arrange a meeting with the superstar."

"It didn't seem impossible to me. He said he wanted to give Whitney Houston a mansion that he owned in a suburb of Khartoum."

"He would say how beautiful she is, what a nice smile she has, how truly Islamic she is but is just brainwashed by American culture and by her husband -- Bobby Brown."

And bin Laden had a plan to deal with that little problem -- he discussed having Brown killed, said Boof.

Boof, who once claimed she had to take her son out of a Los Angeles school after rumours surfaced that bin Laden was his father, also claimed the Al Qaeda mastermind read more than the Koran.

"In his briefcase I would come across photographs of the Star magazine, as well as copies of Playboy," she writes. Enditem

(Agencies)

Editor: Zhu Jin

August 21, 2006

相声

马季 is a genius. Listening to the Chinese stand-up comedy is a joy because sometimes only comedy can reflect life so well. Chinese comedy is a reflection of Chinese culture and a snapshot of Chinese life. Listening to it, even if details slip past me, reminds me of when 上海话和国语 were the only spoken languages I knew. I'm grateful to 王艳 for giving me the 马季 anthology, all 20 cd's worth.

多层饭店 - a critique of early reform China where planned economy suffered from an overwrought bureauracy and over employment. 

January 2, 2006

How do I put this delicately?

That's what the pilot announced over the speakers about an hour into American Airlines flight 1869 travelling from Dallas to San Francisco on Jan 1st, 2006. He had just informed of the passengers and crew that an emergency landing was about to take place -- into Amarillo, Texas. "We have a loss of flight controls. We are seeing inputs into the flight controls that are not being made by myself or the first officer." Basically, our rudder was getting a mind of its own he later explained.

I was relieved to hear that announcement. For about five minutes prior to the announcement the plane had been banked right and decending fast. I was a little concerned at first when I heard a shudder and surprised to see us turn in mid flight. When I was certain something was wrong (since commercial flights tend not to waste gas doing circles in mid flight) and no announcement came from the captain, for the first time in a long time, I panicked and felt my pulse race a bit. Hearing that something was indeed wrong made me feel better, although other passengers who were sleeping or unaware of the situation gasped.

The emergency landing into Amarillo was uneventful except for the jack rabbit that scurried across the runway as we landed and the applause in the cabin. Once at a stop, the captain toured the cabin and answered questions from passengers and said it'd be probably three to four hours before they would be able to get a plane into Amarillo to ferry us to San Francisco. "But it's better to be down here wishing you were up there than to be up there wishing you were down here," he said.

I had never been so happy to set my foot on Texas soil.

Waiting in the lounge we watched "Anchorman" with Laura, a design student and intern who had been in Hong Kong and was on her way to an internship in San Francisco. Then while eating pizza with Lisa, an 81 year old woman named Phyllis fell face first down the escalators. I think it's the first time I heard "Help! Help!". I ran over, saw a motionless woman, face down, head-first decending accompanied by women who were now frentic. I was able to hit the emergency stop button just before the poor woman was about to be swept by the bottom flange of the escalator. She was talking about five minutes later although was still motionless waiting for the parametics. That was the second emergency of the day.

Previous to that second emergency, while waiting in the lounge, a woman (A teacher at UNR) came up and asked if Lisa and I had been in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. It turns out she had seen us at many different places over the past two weeks and was even in MNG and ZARA when Lisa was doing some shopping and shared our flight home. What of accidents, incidents and coincidence.

Too much excitement to start the new year.