Anyone who thinks a $500 rebate check from the government is able to stimulate the economy should also consider the effect of a switch to Digital TV, right? If each family on average spends $500 on digital TV equipment and every business involved in video production has to switch over to HD equipment -- does that stimulate the economy? Some broke blokes will get the DTV converter box for $20 w/coupon (like me -- for now), and some people are buying giant LCDs to hang in every room in the house. It's a liquid crystal arms race! Surely, some of the money would have gone into savings, deferred as a safety net in these volatile times, or gone for susie and jonny's Christmas presents (substituted for other current spending) if not for the DTV switch over, but I would think there's still a very large net positive effect on consumer spending. You wouldn't buy a TV instead of making mortgage payments, would you? And how many people will buy auxiliary goods like blue-ray players and order cable to complement the splashy new displays?
Beyond the economic impact, might DTV bump us to a better cooperative equilibrium with the government? When Sandy's and my TV, which couldn't get a single clear station with rabbit ears, turned noise free and clear with the Zenith DTV converter box, even Grinches in the room uttered the phrase: This is change I can believe in! Ring up some goodwill for the new administration (even though they had no part in coordinating the change). I can't remember the last time a government agency did anything with such immediate positive visible impact.
The bottom line is that in these tough economic times the timing of the DTV switch over is fantastic from both a macro-economic stimulus and government/public trust and coordination point of view.
Winners: tv watchers, cable/sat operators, flat screen installers, content owners, electronic manufacturers and sales, electronic recyclers.
Losers: Video firms struggling with upgrading equipment because of the capital expense or credit constraints. Other manufacturers (toys, other electronics during the holidays) or services that see a slight substitution away from their products and services.
Going extinct: People who like to stand on one leg while holding the rabbit ears to get a better picture.
Update (thanks Shen):