Teddy Bloggie Blog Blogging

Staying up past my bed time watching the Walnut Creek debate between the Cali recall candidates. Here's my take.

I wish we could elect two people. One to run social policies and another to run economic policies. I'd vote for Camejo for the social chair and Uberoth for the economic chair. I think that's where most californians are -- and yes, they're pretty schizophretic.

And whoo hoo! Camejo's talking about proportional representation!

Unfortunately I don't think Camejo's ready to work with Uberoth, they would fight it out over most issues such as schools, overtime pay, welfare systems, etc. But better policies would probably result if they had to meet half way. Uberoth for freedom! Camejo for equity!

I'd rather use McClintock as a door mat.

Bustamante is too much of a puppet. (Though the name CRUZ is kinda of cool)

Huffington is Feinstein with an accent.

If I weren't so disgusted with the recall in the first place maybe I'd be happy voting for one of these characters.

Oh, I forgot about Schwarzenegger. But that's not really by accident since there's really not much to talk about. What's he for? He's like that big blow up balloon at the auto dealer. It's big and everyone sees it, but it doesn't make any sense.

"Ah, that's a big blow up dinosaur sir..." (followed by long awkward silence)

"Yeah, you like it?"

"Why's it here again?"

"For getting attention."

"But why?"

I've officially started my graduate education. Yes, MATH CAMP started today. Yes, math camp. It's like summer camp for the super nerdy as it has been pointed out to me. What's striking is that I feel I can do the math... I'm just bad at understanding verbalized or written math. Here's what I remember of today's lecture, paraphrasing of course:

Prof: We'll be working with the real number set which is written with a capital R. In your book, it's a bold R. Also, sometimes we write it in cursive R. Although you'll also see this (an R with two vertical lines). (this takes about two minutes)

Prof (cont'd): Vectors are written as a variable. "X". It could also be shown as X₁,X₂,...,X_n. You can think of them as vertical columns when there are operations to be done.

Prof: Additive inverse... (he means subtracting)

Prof: The inner product is also known as a dot product. Some will refer to this as a scalar product.

Prof: "None negative" is different from "strictly positive". "Strictly negative" is different from "none positive".

Prof: Lenght of x is also equal to the norm of x. People can't agree what to call it sometimes. (oh, really?!?!)

Prof: Make sure you differentiate between a function and the values or the set that represents the function; the level of utility from the utility function. As this may lead to confusion. (which leaves me confused)

For a maybe, kind of, somewhat, sort of mind I have, math can be a bit hellish. You mean close enough isn't?

On the bright side. The people seem cool. People who I had a chance to talk are from all over the place. I remember that Nebraska, UCLA, Korea, China, Hong Kong, Uruguay and Japan are all represented. Good news also came that I may be able choose between being an RA for Scott Rozelle, the China development economics guy that got me interested in coming to Davis in the first place, and TAing for microeconomics. The TA job might be a scheduling conflict with one of the classes I need to take, but I think that'll be worked out soon.

The DOJ can't get their hands on any terrorists like Bin Laden so they've moved down the hierarchy of threats to America and grabbed Chong of Cheech and Chong.

What a victory for the free world! Throw him in jail for selling bongs and smoking weed. Man, you justice department guys sure are tough on crime and quick too; did I mention perceptive? -- I mean no one knew that Chong was smoking marijuana, except the millions who saw him star in the reality show "up in smoke" a few decades ago. Did you need the patriot act for that one?

Any tax payers should be demanding their money back from the DOJ... I mean Ken Lay and MCI guys are still playing golf after stealing billions from investors, Enron employees, and the government. But no, the threat and damage to society begins with Chong Glass. Maybe they'll hijack planes by hot-boxing a 747.

My advice for the marijuana lobby is that they ought to start sending some money to Shrub Co. to get out of this jam. Ashcroft needs to send cocaine dubya to prison. How about trying Kissinger for war crimes? I mean 9/11 is also the anniversary of a CIA and Kissinger backed overthrow of a popularly elected government in Chile.

I don't know if Cheech will be next, but even with the capture of notorious Chong, I'm not feeling any safer 2 years after 9/11/01 -- just more angry. I need to find a Chong Glass Bong.

CNN.com - Chong gets 9 months for selling bongs - Sep. 11, 2003

Today we had an orientation with the requisite announcements and administrative stuff. But a few things were interesting...

The UAW local 2865 paid us a visit and I signed up. I've always liked the idea of being a union worker, especially a United Auto Worker union member. Well, officially, I'm not yet a member, but if I ever decide to be a TA (possibly next year) I'd automatically become a member.

A new student from the Korean agriculture ministry (or something to that effect) asked me about U.S. agriculture and the political economy of agriculture in the U.S. I answered with something like how the 1-3% of farmers in the U.S. is a huge constituency that can push through ridiculous farm bills in both the White House and Congress. We spend a few billion here and there to buy products from farmers. We insure that they'll sell for a certain price (say $2.65/bushel for corn) and if it doesn't reach that level, the government pays growers that price anyway. What other business is like that? Oh, and the payments aren't based on the quantity of product. The government pays based on historical harvest, so even if you don't plant anything and the price of whatever you didn't plant drops, you get paid! What a deal, huh? In order to help out the developing world, we destroy their agriculture base. We spend billions to buy from U.S. farmers and give away the crops for free in starving countries. In Egypt, there are silos full of grain from local producers, but it doesn't sell since U.S. free grain is available. Aid agencies are going crazy over U.S. agriculture subsidies since it just creates a cycle of starvation in other countries. U.S. money earmarked for aid is only to be used to buy food from U.S. producers, not producers in the place of famine or drought. Well, anyway, it's going to be fun chatting with him about agriculture policies, but first I'll have to do some homework (a conservative view here).

Another interesting tidbit is that I attended the mixer from 4-6pm. It's the first time I've been a student anywhere and had alcohol catered in. So a bit of red wine, grapes and strawberries were in order. Fun stuff.

After the event, I dug up a speech I read on Brad De Long's site and forwarded it to the new grad students along with my own cautiously optimistic words.

Now, it's time for more math camp homework.

Check out the following article from the economist. I think they're mostly right about the prospect of a large Dollar depreciation. Greenbacks are set to be worth less in a few months or years against the Euros and Yens.

Here's why it's happening:

We spend as a nation more than we produce so that we have to borrow money from other countries. China and Japan and Euroland countries buy dollar denominated bonds and assets. Well if everyone's buying dollars to buy dollar denominated assets, that keeps the price of dollars up. But this can only go on for so long. If they decide to cash in their dollar denominated assets, the price of dollars will drop.

They'd sell these dollar denominated assets if:

a) They think we're indebted to them beyond our ability to pay them back. (in 2002, foreign claims against the U.S. exceeded U.S. claims on foreign countries by 3 trillion dollars)

b) Countries other than the U.S. begin to grow faster and foreign investors cash their U.S. investments in for better opportunities abroad. Maybe they'll want to diversify their holdings even if growth doesn't pick up abroad.

c) Some rogues start selling dollars because they think you're going to start selling dollars. More dollars being sold, less people buying - poof! Money gone. And that's the rub.

Financial markets have become much more liquid, meaning that if a unexpected drop happens, it will probably be sharp and painful.

That would be bad. Remember Thailand, Malaysia, S. Korea? How about Argentina? Know what happens if your currency drops far and fast? People stop buying things because they get scared, they stop investing because the perceived risk in the economy is suddenly much higher. The U.S. won't be like Argentina since our debt is in dollars where as in Thailand for example, when their currency (the Baht) fell by 50%, they all of a sudden had twice the debt since their debt was denominated in dollars! Nevertheless, a large change in exchange rate won't be pretty.

Maybe it's time to park your money in a bank in London or Tokyo. But shhh... don't tell anyone you're doing it, otherwise there might be a run on the dollar.

How do we stop it from happening? Well, the government needs to balance its books. We then need to raise interest rates so that people spend less and save more. This might cause a recession and higher unemployment, but you can't drive off a cliff (war spending, tax cuts) and expect to walk away unscathed.

Standing: Todd, Aya, Alex, Rocio, Sonom, Jennifer, Chen-Pian, Lisa, Dorothy, Pierre, Suzan, Jennifer, Siwa, Matthew, Ricardo
Sitting: Me, Tina, Cheng-Fang, Wensi, David
Person taking photo: Aslihan

It seems I've been assigned an office already - no one's told me in person. I'll try picking up my keys tomorrow. If you look at the site, I'm office-mates with Aya, Ricardo, and Steve. Haven't met Steve, but Aya (from Tokyo but who also speaks Mandarin Chinese) and Ricardo (de Uruguay) are two very cool people.

Social Science and Humanities Building, # 1177
Tel: (530) 754-8485

From Paul Krugman's site, I found this: a chart that shows a highly regressive tax scheme, just the opposite of what you would expect - that the wealthier would pay a higher share of their income to taxes. I believe whatever your political bent, you should support progressive taxation since the poor spends most of their income on necessities like food, shelter, healthcare, etc. I'm not sure what the total tax burden (federal + state + local) looks like, but the Bush II tax cuts have also been highly regressive. All this is happening against the backdrop of budget-constrained state and local governments slashing programs that aid the poor. All in all, making for a system that's becoming more and more regressive.

Source: The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy - study on the distribution of tax burdens

Take a look Here

Saturday, October 4th, 8pm
Cafe de la Paz
1600 Shattack (at Cedar), Berkeley
Admission is free.
(Suggested donation $5-15)
Cafe de la Paz offers pre-show fine dining at 6pm. Pamper you palate and get preferential seating for the show! Reservations: (510) 843-0662.

Sunday, October 5th, 3pm
Youth Employment Partnership (YEP) Gallery
23rd Avenue and International Boulevard (E.14th St.), Oakland
Admission is free. Donations welcome!

The department BBQ was tonight and it was a lot of fun. The best part of this department is the interaction between all the students and the faculty. We hang out, drink beer, cook burgers, and talk endlessly.

Today, two new faces appeared. Navin Tar and Chen Guang. Tar is actually the first person I've met who has their own fan club. Everyone's amazed that he dropped pop stardom in Thailand to join us here in Davis to study agriculture and resource economics. I say it's better than becoming a fat Elvis, a white MJ, or a dead Jimmy, Janis, or Jim. Anyway, he says it's a long story... so I'll find out I guess. On a related note, Aya, my office-mate is reputedly friends with a famous chinese/japanese pop star because of some Japanese school in Taiwan connection. Is everyone a pop star?

No, but I'm starting to think everyone has a story. Dorothy's a black belt in taekwondo. Lisa just got back from a solo trip to Argentina/Patagonia. Jennifer's seen over 800 species of birds (she keeps count).

I'm at the point where I want to walk up to everyone, shake them, and ask for their story, their narrative on how they fit into the world. In the process maybe I'll find out mine.

xirazoo (8:56:34 PM): i got my refund from jcrew
tedtwong (8:56:56 PM): good. stop buying and returning stuff... you'll drive up the prices for the rest of us :-)
xirazoo (8:57:24 PM): like you care
tedtwong (8:57:33 PM): I do... as an economist.
xirazoo (8:57:38 PM): and i can't always decide on things
xirazoo (8:57:46 PM): at least i can return stuff if i don't want it
tedtwong (8:58:28 PM): yeah, but that diverts the cost of processing to the stuff they actually sell, which will raise the price of things that you eventually decide to buy.
xirazoo (8:58:50 PM): how?
tedtwong (9:00:20 PM): think about the retailer as a system. they buy clothes and sell them. If you raise their cost of doing business (by having them spend time and energy processing returns), that cost has to be offset by the money the get from sales. To raise the revenue, they have to raise prices.
xirazoo (9:00:43 PM): oh
tedtwong (9:01:32 PM): I just came up with this... but pretty interesting way to persuade you to stop buying stuff, huh?