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August 26, 2002

Democratic Majority

Putting logging companies in charge of our national forests and oil companies in charge of our national energy policy has put a frown on my face. But there's some good news and my review of Joshua Marshall's review of The Emerging Democratic Majority by John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira is a kernel of the good news. You're right, I haven't read the book and in all likelihood won't, but the book review sounded interesting...

Basically, the book talks about the changing political landscape of the U.S. and it bodes well for those of you who feel like the current administration is out of touch with America. For example, many republicans feel confident about the future because they say the fastest growing counties voted for Bush in 2000. This must mean Bush support is on the rise, right? However, they overlooked, intentionally or otherwise, that they're talking in percentage terms and focusing on some of the smallest counties. It's easy to grow at a 200% rate if the county started at 40 people and they're all related. If you look at where population in absolute terms are growing fastest, they are in the counties that voted for Gore in 2000. "The kinds of demographic groups and regional economies that make the Blue states blueish are growing -- in many cases even within states that voted Red in 2000," Marshall summarizes. In short, cultural, economic and demographic forces are going to change the political discourse in this country and frame the debate around issues that we will care about. I'm looking forward to the day I smile when I hear about new policies coming out of Capitol Hill.

For more check out: Talking Points Memo - "Allow me to recommend a book: The Emerging Democratic Majority by John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira. No question: it's the political book of the year."

August 28, 2002

Bush on Fire

Paul Krugman, a Princeton economics professor and op-ed columnist for the NY Times had this to say about Bush's latest greatest idea. One quick note first. We really can't afford not to have fires in our forests. It's part of the natural life cycle. Fire suppression causes many unintended consequences because fires also do the following: (From Sierra Club report)

- Restore minerals to the soil.
- Create habitat for fish and wild life.
- Release seeds from large trees like the Giant Sequoia and the Ponderosa Pine, which have evolved to rely on fire's life-giving qualities.
- Halt insect infestation.
- Eliminate smaller shrubs and saplings that compete with the forests' large fire-resistant trees.

Bush on Fire By PAUL KRUGMAN Round up the usual suspects! George W. Bush's new "Healthy Forests" plan reads like a parody of his administration's standard operating procedure. You see, environmentalists cause forest fires, and those nice corporations will solve the problem if we get out of their way.

Continue reading "Bush on Fire" »

September 9, 2002

Patriot Act

People should always be weary of anything done in the name of patriotism (as is done in the name of religion). Books burn, citizens get incarcerated, censored, discriminated, and harassed in the name of patriotism (pigs also get up on two legs). This has happened before in every corner of the world, and it would be foolish to assume that it couldn't happen here. Patriotism like piety is benign when practiced with deference to others, but its potential is devastating when it's wielded like a sword in the face of others. It takes a lot of work to guarantee "that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth." The Associated Press seem to be telling us that our government is becoming more "of the state, by the state, for the state". I'm just on the lookout for bipedal pigs...

Overview of Changes to Legal Rights
By The Associated Press

September 5, 2002, 11:44 AM EDT

Some of the fundamental changes to Americans' legal rights by the Bush administration and the USA Patriot Act following the terror attacks:

* FREEDOM OF ASSOCIATION: Government may monitor religious and political institutions without suspecting criminal activity to assist terror investigation.

* FREEDOM OF INFORMATION: Government has closed once-public immigration hearings, has secretly detained hundreds of people without charges, and has encouraged bureaucrats to resist public records requests.

* FREEDOM OF SPEECH: Government may prosecute librarians or keepers of any other records if they tell anyone that the government subpoenaed information related to a terror investigation.

* RIGHT TO LEGAL REPRESENTATION: Government may monitor federal prison jailhouse conversations between attorneys and clients, and deny lawyers to Americans accused of crimes.

* FREEDOM FROM UNREASONABLE SEARCHES: Government may search and seize Americans' papers and effects without probable cause to assist terror investigation.

* RIGHT TO A SPEEDY AND PUBLIC TRIAL: Government may jail Americans indefinitely without a trial.

* RIGHT TO LIBERTY: Americans may be jailed without being charged or being able to confront witnesses against them.

September 12, 2002

Costs of Free Speech

Today, I was thinking about how this weblog probably wouldn't exist if I were living in China. There, I would be afraid to question the views of the state. You can do it if you want to (so long as you don't discuss Taiwan independence or the Falun Gong), but people generally don't because they remember what happened in the 60's during the cultural revolution, when anyone with rightist views were persecuted, sometimes jailed, sometimes killed. McCarthyism times 100. My father's uncle who lived with us during my childhood was labeled a rightist for spouting ideas different from Maoist socialist ideology and was jailed for many years. He never really recovered from that experience, always loafing around the streets after his release, unable to hold a job and burdened by his reluctant silence. No, I'm glad I'm writing this weblog in this country because I know my right to speak my mind is the very essence of our democratic government and only by exercising free speech can it be sustained. It doesn't matter if I agree with Bush or if I hold the popular opinion because dissent is expected, not frowned upon.

Sometimes I wish I focused more of my attention on happier events, stuff that doesn't tempt me to be critical or cynical; alas, I seem drawn to publicizing the threats around me. Well, today I want to point out the threat to academic freedom. This one is from the Hoover Institue of Stanford. Sometimes, even the farm across the way comes up with a great critque of popular rhetoric.

The Crisis Role of the University by John H. Bunzel

Why, one wonders, are various conservatives and other voices of the political right seemingly driven to drawing up enemy lines?

Continue reading "Costs of Free Speech" »

September 13, 2002

Changing Policy

President George Dubya made his anticipated speech at the U.N. General Assembly yesterday. As Marshall says in his Talking Points Memo Blog:

"After reading the speech several times it seemed to me that when you peeled away the Cheney-esque bluster you had a Powell-esque policy.

No one is mentioning this. The White House had one policy. They hit a brick wall. Now they've changed policies.

And that's good. Because this is a better policy."

I'm happy to cautiously agree.

Another piece of good news - we rejoined UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization) today after an eight year absence. Here's the description of the organization:

UNESCO was created in 1946 and currently has 188 member states. UNESCO promotes collaboration among nations in education, science, culture, and communications. Among its key work areas are expanding educational opportunities, protecting world heritage sites, developing reliable world scientific standards and statistics, and promoting freedom of expression and human rights.

So a few pieces of good news.

September 16, 2002

Crony Capitalism

We're not blind or stupid in this country. We have the media to keep us informed. We have caring leaders who put our interests infront of their own.

Don't we? Shouldn't that be the way?

As you contemplate the questions, may I point you to this, which came up on the argmax headlines on the upper right of this very page. It reads like a cheap TNN movie script. Unfortunately for us - it's all too true... You should read this, you should really, really read this - even if you don't read anything else for the rest of the day... It'll help you answer the questions posed if nothing else.


Cronies in Arms
by PAUL KRUGMAN

In February 2001 Enron presented an imposing facade, but insiders knew better: they were desperately struggling to keep their Ponzi scheme going. When one top executive learned of millions in further losses, his e-mailed response summed up the whole strategy: "Close a bigger deal. Hide the loss before the 1Q."

The strategy worked. Enron collapsed, but not before insiders made off with nearly $1 billion. The sender of that blunt e-mail sold $12 million in stocks just before they became worthless. And now he's secretary of the Army.

Continue reading "Crony Capitalism" »

September 20, 2002

The World's Bully

Bush's new military policy is based on first strikes and unrivaled power. How shortsighted! In the 1930's there was a similar policy of blitzkrieg and conscription. Peace, we should know by now, is brought about by a balance of power. Peace arrived by force can only mask fear and resentment. If I were a young person in another country, I would not be deterred by 'unrivaled power', instead I would be easily encouraged to defeat it.

bush_iraqschorr.gif

October 4, 2002

Another Man's Freedom Fighter

We Americans keep telling ourselves that an attack on Iraq will bring freedom and democracy to millions of people suffering under the totalitarian regime of Saddam Hussein. It's unfortunate that throughout history very few well-intentioned military excursions ever turned out so rosy. We can even look into our own past and see how we justified the taming of the West as a process of bringing freedom, democracy and God to the indigenous people (yeah, it was slaughter by any one else's definition). That might be an extreme example, but even in the recent case of Afghanistan, we bombed the country and left it in ruin. We promised $5 billion for rebuilding the country, a paltry sum to begin with, yet so far only a few hundred million has been spend in rebuilding. There is still a lack of basic infrastructure like electricity and roads in Afghanistan, but we're already moving on to other things... It's a shame that we spend such a gross sum bombing the country only to get miserly when it comes to rebuilding the country. It seems we're good at silencing our critics and enemies but we're not very adept at making friends. I have to wonder whether American policies after Sept. 11th created more friends or foes? I think it's an important question to pose for the sake of world peace and self-interest. After all, friends don't let friends fly planes into occupied buildings.

Lately we've turned our attention toward Saddam, but as the following NY Times editorial reports, Iraqi citizens may not be very welcoming. That's not surprising though seeing how we've shut down their economy since the Gulf War and many of their citizens blame us for their surging infant mortality, cancer and deformities rate. Gosh, were those depleted-uranium shells? Our bad.

At least the Bush Administration tells us that with the educated population of Iraq, the rebuilding will be much easier than in Afghanistan. There is an existing pool of doctors, teachers, professionals. That's comforting isn't it? But what does it say when that educated population prefers the draconian rule of Saddam to the freedom and democracy-building pre-emptive strikes promised by the U.S.? As my high school history teacher Mr. Harvill loved to say, "One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter." Which are we?

The Stones of Baghdad By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF

BAGHDAD, Iraq - From their perch in Washington, President Bush and his advisers seem to have convinced themselves that an invasion will proceed easily because many Iraqis will dance in the streets to welcome American troops. That looks like a potentially catastrophic misreading of Iraq.

Continue reading "Another Man's Freedom Fighter" »

October 8, 2002

Bush's Speech

I've heard and read the speech President Bush gave last night and I'm worried. It seems like rhetoric to me with nothing of substance, filled only with assumptions, exaggerations and hypotheticals. "Facing clear evidence or peril [what clear evidence?], we cannot wait for the final proof [how about the initial proof?]— the smoking gun — that could come in the form of a mushroom cloud." He continued, "Understanding the threats of our time, knowing the designs and deceptions of the Iraqi regime, we have every reason to assume the worst, and we have an urgent duty to prevent the worst from occurring."

Let me summarize for those who missed the entire speech:

They are bad. Proof? We can't wait for proof.

We are good. We should assume the worst.

We shouldn't wait for bad people to do bad things to us so we must do bad things to them first.

I'm kind of nervous about the whole thing. It doesn't seem right that in a democracy, the leadership should be so willing to attack another country and then push that view upon the public while offering no clear evidence that could support their pending attack. Bush did show a photo of an alleged nuclear lab that's been rebuilt since 1998. I'm not convinced that a rebuilt building proves the existence of weapons of mass destruction, but even so, why don't we just send the nuclear inspection team in to check out that building? It's sometimes acceptable to act on scant facts, but going to war should not be one of them. Decisions of this magnitude will be paid with people's lives. I'm just not buying Bush's argument. The P/E (propaganda/evidence) ratio is way too high, it looks like a bubble to me. Let me forewarn you, it's gonna crash.

Also, the war on terror is being used to justify the increasing secrecy of our government while destroying individual freedoms at home. All this reminds me of what James Madison once said: "The means of defense against foreign danger historically have become the instruments of tyranny at home."

October 25, 2002

Remembering Senator Paul Wellstone

wellstone.jpg

I responded to the news of Senator Paul Wellstone's death today with shock, disbelief, and saddness. My sympathy goes out to the families and friends of those who died in the plane crash.

Senator Wellstone was a great politician. How many others can you so plainly label as such? He always stood for what he believed in. He was always honest with himself and the public. Facing a tight re-election in Minnesota he was brave enough to vote his conscience, against the war resolution. He always did that. He never wavered from his sense of political activism, not for fund-raising or re-election concerns. I didn't know him, but I was always happy to see him on tv, in the news, or hear him on the radio. In a democracy where differing opinions ought to be heard, you could always count on Paul Wellstone to be the bearer of a different perspective. I'm gonna miss him. We have all lost a wonderful statesman today.

November 5, 2002

Turkey and US

I don't know if I should title this Turkey and U.S. or turkey and us. In any case, if you haven't heard the latest elections in Turkey was a landslide victory for the conservative Islamic party. It's like Newtonian politics. The harder the U.S. pushes for freedom (in the old GI Joe sense) and secularism, the wilder islamic fundamentalism erupts. Some kind of political action - reaction, a polarization of the world. To be fair, the Turks were probably just upset that their economy has tanked and took it out on the incumbents. Islamic conservatism may just have been fortunate to fill the vacuum created by an angry electorate.

Tomorrow's our turn to vote. The midterm elections this year is expected to be record-setting for lowest turnout. I don't mind taking part in a record setting event, but this one's really not something to be proud of. So, go vote. I just hope the results of tomorrow's elections won't result in an amplification of the global shoving match.

November 6, 2002

now what?

Democrats lost almost all the losable races. Why? I think they need to get a coherent message together that includes an admirable vision for the future. They have to put that vision in the minds of the electorate. It should be about education, environment, healthcare, employment, social responsibility and equality. It should vociferously slow or reverse the growing wealth inequality in this country - a trend that democracy suffers under. On the international front, Democrats should affirm our support of the international rule of law, support of international accords and take the lead in issues such as equitable trade with developing nations, environmental activism, resource management, and regional security.

Unfortunately they haven't been doing that. Their message -- what message? They are likely to lose control of the Senate on top of the Republican majority in the House. Now, Bush shouldn't have any problems getting very conservative judges confirmed, shouldn't have any problems getting more tax cuts for the very rich, shouldn't have problems pressing for war with Iraq, and he shouldn't have any problems protecting the energy interests of his cronies. The check and balance between the legislative, judicial and executive branches is going to be minimized after this election.

This sucks.

In Depth Analysis

The most clear, illuminating, insightful piece of commentary I've yet heard about the midterm elections.

The Daily Californian

"I'm sad to hear it," said Berkeley resident Gerry Robinson, referring to the new Republican senate majority. "If the Republicans get in and make a mess of it, they deserve to sit in their own crap."

Makes you think.

November 7, 2002

Nothing Came of Nothing

Nice summary of this past Tuesday from The American Prospect:

"Debacle" by Harold Meyerson

Without vision, the party -- well, a Senate majority -- perishes.

It is the first sign of trouble in a play about nothing but trouble. Asked by her father in the play's first scene what she can say to demonstrate her love for him, Cordelia says, "Nothing." To which Lear responds, "Nothing will come of nothing."

Which is a pretty fair summation of the Democrats' 2002 campaign. They had no message. They were an opposition party that drew no lines of opposition. They had nothing to say. And on Tuesday, their base responded by staying home in droves.

Nothing came of nothing. The Democrats lost the Senate, lost seats in the House, and picked up significantly fewer statehouses than they had counted upon.


Continue reading "Nothing Came of Nothing" »

November 8, 2002

Getting to the Point

If only the media can get their act together to disabuse the public and really report on the impact of Republican policies as Brad DeLong has done in the following.

Whingeing and Snivelling From a Democrat: Archive Entry From Brad DeLong's Webjournal

Well... I'll tell you why I'm whingeing and snivelling right now... It's not so much because Republicans control all three centers of power--the presidency, the house, and the senate... It's because I have a low opinion of *these* particular Republicans...

You see, it's not that I think America would be a better country if Republicans never had a majority in any house of congress and never held the presidency. I kind of think periods of Republican political dominance should be like abortions--safe, legal, and *rare*.


Continue reading "Getting to the Point" »

November 17, 2002

Medieval Morality Play

For a look at what a modern take on the medieval morality play looks like...

To Maintain Ecclesiastical Discipline...: Archive Entry From Brad DeLong's Webjournal

December 19, 2002

McNews

I was listening to alternative radio on KQED today and the topic was the current state of journalism. There were three major problems or biases discussed in the taped speech that was broadcast:

1. Because of a pursuit of "professionalism", the media can only discuss topics and views that comes from "official" sources. Any journalist who writes based on information from alternative sources can be labeled unprofessional. This means your news most likely comes from the White House, Governor's Mansion, City Council, etc... If the information doesn't come from official sources, then it's not likely to be covered. Worse still, the journalists are usually close to the sources they get their information from and are not very skeptical or critical of the information they get.

2. News usually require a "peg" to be covered. Otherwise, the news may seem biased or partisan. Stories surrounding long-term problems are no longer adequately being covered because of this.

3. Bias of "dig here not there". For example, government malfeasance gets covered but not corporate malfeasance. Enron became a business story instead of a deeper story about the implicit pact between business elites and political elites. It's likely a reflection of media concentration and corporate control.

There's a bunch of other interesting issues discussed and definitely worth a listen.


Here's a link for the streaming m3u of the lecture. It's a long lecture though so be prepared. You can download it at this site.

Land of the Free

What's going on these days? Do civil rights no longer apply in our no-end-in-sight war against invisible terrorists? What's next? Detention camps like those created for Japanese Americans during WWII? Why are we having registration programs anyway? I think the NAZIs had them, but they're not an example we would want to follow.

My turn to bang my head against the wall. The reason: this piece from the LA Times.

INS arrests hundreds from Mideast, Africa / They were held when they showed up, as requested, for a registration program

Los Angeles -- Hundreds of men and boys from Middle Eastern and African countries were arrested by federal immigration officials in Southern California this week when they complied with orders to appear at INS offices for a special registration program.


Continue reading "Land of the Free" »

January 2, 2003

Christmas Reading

From the poor man. Funny. Sad. Disturbing.

The Poor Man: Christmas Reading

Christmas Reading

"Bush at War" was on sale a Sam's Club, so I read that. I guess it's okay, although there's really not very much to it - this book would have been a lot more effective at 25-30 pages - it reads like a heavily-padded term paper, and it repeats itself a lot. The plot of the book is that we beat up Afghanistan, and then Bush listened to Rumsfeld and Cheney about Iraq, and Cheney ran his mouth off in public one time, but now Bush is under Powell's wing and we're all safe - or so they would have you believe! The other big news is that Bush is a fucking dumbass. On North Korea:


"I loathe Kim Jong Il!" Bush shouted, waving his finger in the air. "I've got a visceral reaction to this guy, because he is starving his people ... It is visceral. Maybe it's my religion, maybe it's my - but I feel passionate about this."


"They tell me, we don't need to move to fast, because the financial burdens on people will be so immense if we try to - if this guy were to topple. Who would take care of - I just don't buy that. Either you believe in human freedom, and want to - and worry about the human condition, or you don't."


On Iraq:


I'm not a textbook player, I'm a gut player. ... I'm the kind of person who wants to make sure all the risk is assessed.

I'm so glad that the development of nuclear weapons by lunatics has enabled you to figure out what kind of guy you are. It sounds like an amazing voyage of self-discovery, like tripping on Big Sur or some shit. And thank God - I mean, THANK FUCKING GOD - that we finally have someone in the White House who cares about the human condition! If there's one thing that the internet has taught me, besides where to find pictures of two chicks making out, it's that all problems in the world are simple questions of good guys and bad guys, and it is just a matter of having the courage to choose to be a moral person, preferably ungrammatically and in all capital letters. Because everyone else is stupid and bad.

Now, I will admit that this is a bit unfair. If Bush delivered the Gettysburg Address tomorrow, I'd probably find something to complain about. Whatever - I'm a real bad guy. Still. There's something a little peculiar about thinking that the way to approach political issues is to decide what kind of guy you are. Something a tad narcissistic, perhaps. Or incredibly, shockingly stupid.

February 6, 2003

New American Century

It's not that I don't think we should forcibly remove Saddam Hussein (though I don't think there's evidence of that necessity), it's that I don't trust Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and company to do the job. Way back in 1998, they were pushing for this idea. Nothing has really changed between then and now, except a change in our leadership.

1998 Letter on Iraq Following are excerpts from a 1998 letter to President Bill Clinton from the Project for the New American Century urging the removal of President Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq. Among the signers were Donald H. Rumsfeld, Paul D. Wolfowitz and R. James Woolsey.

. . . it means removing Saddam Hussein and his regime from power. That now needs to become the aim of American foreign policy.


We urge you to articulate this aim, and to turn your administration's attention to implementing a strategy for removing Saddam's regime from power. This will require a full complement of diplomatic, political and military efforts. Although we are fully aware of the dangers and difficulties of implementing this policy, we believe the dangers of failing to do so are far greater.


New American Century II

I just checked out the New American Century website and is it ever scary. Click on the link, read the signatories and you'll also get a chill. The signatories of that 1997 statement of principles are in charge, the principles guiding our nation.

It's like a blood brother gang, with the goal of taking over the world. Only, they're serious and out for blood.

Here's an interesting idea from that website whose membership includes our most powerful leaders:

The Bush Doctrine is also notable for what it is not. It is not Clintonian multilateralism; the president did not appeal to the United Nations, profess faith in arms control, or raise hopes for any “peace process.” Nor is it the balance-of-power realism favored by his father.

That scares me. Mainly because I don't believe in hegemonic rule of the world by anyone. Because I do believe in such feel good policies as "multilateralism", "arms control", and let's not forget "peace process". Now you know where George W. Bush is coming from. No wonder we're in such a awful hole.

February 12, 2003

Irrelevancy

You know, Colin Powell was the one guy I liked on Bush's foreign policy team. Now I'm not so sure. I know he has to tow the line on this one because he's a soldier, but I'm not buying this whole "if the UN and NATO doesn't go our way, they're making themselves irrelevant." Does that actually work? Let's say they're in a classroom:

Teacher: "Hey Saddam, did you throw that spit-ball?"

Stubborn Saddam: "Uh, nope I didn't do it."

Teacher: "I saw it come from your direction... you better hand me whatever's in your hand."

McDonald: "I saw him do it. I'll go beat his damn face in cuz he's lying."

Teacher: "No McDonald, you're always so violent. Let's wait and see what Saddam has to say..."

Stubborn Saddam: "...I...uh..."

McDonald: impatiently interrupting "I'll rip his face off. I'll do it. Let me do it and take his candy."

Teacher: "Relax Big Mac, you're aways getting in trouble. You beat up Afghan yesterday and accidently gave Canada a black eye, remember?"

McDonald: "Hey, this whole instructional environment thing will be irrelevant if you don't let me beat up Saddam today. He did it. I know he did. I can't wait anymore!"

Rest of Class: "Dude, you should kick-back..."

I guess it's not exactly like that, but in a way, it is. It's the hot-heads vs. the cool heads. I see it like this: we're rushing to wage war while our staunchest allies of the past are holding things up because they believe in a diplomatic, peaceful solution.

The UN, especially, was created by us to solve problems through diplomacy. Half of diplomacy is letting hot heads cool off by taking up time. NATO, on the other hand, was an alliance for mutual defense.

Here we are going on the offensive and waging war... no wonder those institutions are becoming irrelevant. It's not because of France, Belgium or Germany. If there's one reason the UN and NATO would become irrelevant it's because they're set up as institutions for peaceful resolutions; not to be commandeered by the hot heads.

February 14, 2003

German Internment Camps

North Carolina Congressman Howard Coble recently said on a radio program that Japanese Americans were interned for their own safety.

"We were at war. They [Japanese-Americans] were an endangered species," Coble said. "For many of these Japanese-Americans, it wasn't safe for them to be on the street.

"Some probably were intent on doing harm to us, just as some of these Arab-Americans are probably intent on doing harm to us."

More outrageous is that he's chairman of the House Crime, Terrorism and Homeland Security subcommittee. Not only is Rep. Coble historically inaccurate, but his remarks are racist. As the article below mentions: records show there were no widespread incidents of violence against Japanese-Americans before their detention, and no Japanese-Americans in the United States were accused of espionage against America during World War II. However, some Germans were involved in espionage. It leads to the obvious question why weren't any German internment camps established? Or Italian? Reagan and Bush Sr. have both acknowledged the racist motivations of Japanese internment during World War II. It's silly that Coble doesn't have the same common sense.

To do something about this, go here.

The Sun News | 02/13/2003 | Asian-Americans want Rep. Coble to give up post

February 28, 2003

Letter of Resignation

You can't be a hero without making a sacrifice:

U.S. Diplomat's Letter of Resignation

February 27, 2003

The following is the text of John Brady Kiesling's letter of resignation to Secretary of State Colin L. Powell. Mr. Kiesling is a career diplomat who has served in United States embassies from Tel Aviv to Casablanca to Yerevan.

Dear Mr. Secretary:

I am writing you to submit my resignation from the Foreign Service of the United States and from my position as Political Counselor in U.S. Embassy Athens, effective March 7. I do so with a heavy heart. The baggage of my upbringing included a felt obligation to give something back to my country. Service as a U.S. diplomat was a dream job. I was paid to understand foreign languages and cultures, to seek out diplomats, politicians, scholars and journalists, and to persuade them that U.S. interests and theirs fundamentally coincided. My faith in my country and its values was the most powerful weapon in my diplomatic arsenal.

Continue reading "Letter of Resignation" »

March 17, 2003

End of Diplomacy

It looks like Bush is giving up on diplomacy. A Halliburton subsidiary has already gained contracts for rebuilding Iraq and putting out the fires that will be started on Iraqi oil fields. When we see the horror of war, Cheney's buddies will only see how much tax dollars will be paid to them for the destruction that's about to be unleashed.

I grew up thinking how politicians are paid to conduct diplomacy; to avoid war at all costs. But once elected officials gain power, they can do whatever they want it seems. Just to enforce that idea, here's an email I received today:

Excepts of an interview of Herman Goering while in prison during the Nuremberg Trials in April 1946. From the records of his interviewer, psychologist Gustave Gilbert:

Goering: "Of course the people do not want war.....but after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship.

Gilbert: "There is one difference," I pointed out. "In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars."

Goering: "That is all well and good; but voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to greater danger. It works the same way in any country."

Standing Alone

If the Iraq war is put to a vote, the citizens of Spain, UK, and Australia would reject it. The only country where it might pass is the U.S. and that's only because Bush has been lying to us about Iraq's association with Al Qaeda and lying about how Iraq was trying to acquire nuclear weapons from Niger.

We have a misled public supporting this war and a coalition of the very unwilling. The Canadian government told their public their non-participation in this war to a standing ovation. Same thing happened in the UK when Robin Cook, the leader of the Commons and former foreign secretary, resigned in protest. Our staunchest allies have populations that are overwhelmingly opposed to this war.

What's this about representing and spreading Democracy?

March 18, 2003

Lying Son of a...

A comment from DeLong's website that I thought needed airing:

Consider the lie that Bush said to the American people in his press conference

"BUSH: And yes, we'll call for a vote.

QUESTION: No matter what?

BUSH: No matter what the whip count is, we're calling for the vote. We want to see people stand up and say what their opinion is about Saddam Hussein and the utility of the United Nations Security Council. And so, you bet. It's time for people to show their cards, let the world know where they stand when it comes to Saddam."

No one addresses this issue. God forbid he fool around with some woman and then lie about it, then the media would... Oh never mind, he is conservative. The media would still do nothing.

Posted by Dan at March 18, 2003 02:38 PM

March 19, 2003

Who's Your Buddy?

Our new buddies:

Afghanistan, Albania, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, El Salvador, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Hungary, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, the Netherlands, Nicaragua, the Philippines, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom and Uzbekistan.

The State Department listed Japan as available for "post-conflict" support.

I'm glad we've got those Uzbekistanis. Whew!

March 21, 2003

Stupid Tax Cuts

I am fed up. Allow me to bang my own head against the wall.

Who cuts taxes when fighting a war? Who cuts taxes by $726 billion over 10-year period while fighting a war, facing huge deficits, and tries to claim job-creation and trickle down-frickin'-lame-ass-economics as the rationale? Who argues that long-term fiscal expansion would solve a short-term recession? Who would slash aid to the states so the richest Americans can have their tax cut while schools lay off teachers? Who tries to solve a demand for investment problem with a supply solution? What kind of costs and benefits do our leaders in Congress and the White House consider? If this recently-passed-the-house-$2.2 trillion-budget isn't an example of a utterly corrupt political system, then what is?

I think the 2004 election slogan should be "It's the tax cuts ya stupid mother #@$@#$ morons!"

April 9, 2003

Becoming Pacifist

There are two things I'm really uncomfortable with in this war we're fighting. The first is that we're targeting the Iraqi leadership with guided missles. Am I the only one who feels uncomfortable with this tactic? I guess assassinations are deemed fair game by Bush and Co. That's strange though because I've always thought outright assassinations were illegal under any pretext. I think the U.N. and Geneva Convention state something like:

"Governments shall prohibit by law all extra-legal, arbitrary and summary executions and shall ensure that any such executions are recognized as offences under their criminal laws, and are punishable by appropriate penalties which take into account the seriousness of such offences. Exceptional circumstances including a state of war or threat of war, internal political instability or any other public emergency may not be invoked as a justification of such executions."

You open up a Pandora's box when you start allowing for targeted killing of leaders. I think for me, the idea of the U.S. being judge and executioner is unsettling. Defenders of assassinations would say that such measures would save military and civilian lives that would be otherwise lost if you had to go to all out war or if you imposed sanctions. I can't really argue with that, but it still doesn't make moral sense to me. Although morality doesn't coexist well with war, I'd like to think that it should in some way. I mean, we don't let cops go around shooting gang members because they might kill some innocent people. We don't allow cops to kill them even if we think have killed other people. We have trials and we have a rule of law. Expediency and preemption cannot justify the usurption of our domestic laws - so why should international rules of engagement be any different? The road leading to legitimizing assassinations is also a two-way street. I think you'll see more assassination attempts on the U.S. and other Western leadership as a result of our policy toward "terrorist" groups. In the end, everyone's definition of "terrorist" is their own and very different.

Second, I'm uncomfortable with this war because we've killed a lot of Iraqi civilians and soldiers. Why even soldiers? Because I suspect most of them do not want to fight. It's funny what you'll do when there's a gun at your back. Sometimes you'll even take a seat in a tank that's about to be cooked up by U.S. Apache helicopters. Most soldiers are conscripts, they didn't volunteer to serve. And then there are the truly innocent people. The hospitals in Baghdad are running out of supplies and they're stacking dead bodies in the back. These scenes aren't what we see on our late night news. We get the picture of soldiers being kissed and Hussein statues being torn down. A very one sided view in the land of the free. Our news networks are run by the State department and Disney. I'm exaggerating but how far am I from the truth?

I've never thought of myself as a pacifist, mainly because I can see myself being violent. But now I find myself uncomfortable with the "killing" aspect of war. I know, it's going to happen when you're tossing 2000lb bombs into a city's center, but it doesn't mean I feel good about it. I hope that Americans remember that it's still wrong to kill innocent people no matter what's on the line. I hope they remember that it's been a war of choice that we've been fighting in Iraq, not a war of neccessity. I hope American's don't celebrate in the streets like it's Mardi Gras when this thing is over.

The Iraqi's weren't a true threat to U.S. security as this war has clearly shown. I hope we think about that when our leaders try to convince us that we need to kill Syrians and Iranians to bring them a better life. I hope the hawks don't move on to Syria and Iran when this is done. I suspect they actually like the head rush of war. I suspect they believe themselves to be "big picture" thinkers, who don't really spend much time thinking about individual lives, and I suspect they don't share my discomfort with war.

July 4, 2003

Thinking About Independence Day

As I celebrate the day watching and listening to fireworks, I feel as though the most patriotic among us keep their feelings to themselves and the ones who could care less talk the talk. To illustrate that idea is a timely and important editorial in the Army Times:

Army Times - Community - Military Families

In recent months, President Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress have missed no opportunity to heap richly deserved praise on the military. But talk is cheap — and getting cheaper by the day, judging from the nickel-and-dime treatment the troops are getting lately.

For example, the White House griped that various pay-and-benefits incentives added to the 2004 defense budget by Congress are wasteful and unnecessary — including a modest proposal to double the $6,000 gratuity paid to families of troops who die on active duty. This comes at a time when Americans continue to die in Iraq at a rate of about one a day...


September 11, 2003

We Got Chong for Selling Bongs

The DOJ can't get their hands on any terrorists like Bin Laden so they've moved down the hierarchy of threats to America and grabbed Chong of Cheech and Chong.

What a victory for the free world! Throw him in jail for selling bongs and smoking weed. Man, you justice department guys sure are tough on crime and quick too; did I mention perceptive? -- I mean no one knew that Chong was smoking marijuana, except the millions who saw him star in the reality show "up in smoke" a few decades ago. Did you need the patriot act for that one?

Any tax payers should be demanding their money back from the DOJ... I mean Ken Lay and MCI guys are still playing golf after stealing billions from investors, Enron employees, and the government. But no, the threat and damage to society begins with Chong Glass. Maybe they'll hijack planes by hot-boxing a 747.

My advice for the marijuana lobby is that they ought to start sending some money to Shrub Co. to get out of this jam. Ashcroft needs to send cocaine dubya to prison. How about trying Kissinger for war crimes? I mean 9/11 is also the anniversary of a CIA and Kissinger backed overthrow of a popularly elected government in Chile.

I don't know if Cheech will be next, but even with the capture of notorious Chong, I'm not feeling any safer 2 years after 9/11/01 -- just more angry. I need to find a Chong Glass Bong.

CNN.com - Chong gets 9 months for selling bongs - Sep. 11, 2003

July 2, 2004

FactCheck.org

FactCheck.org - Annenberg Political Fact Check

September 1, 2004

I want Lake Wobegon Back

We're Not in Lake Wobegon Anymore: How did the Party of Lincoln and Liberty transmogrify into the party of Newt Gingrich's evil spawn and their Etch-A-Sketch president, a dull and rigid man, whose philosophy is a jumble of badly sutured body parts trying to walk?

By Garrison Keillor

Something has gone seriously haywire with the Republican Party. Once, it was the party of pragmatic Main Street businessmen in steel-rimmed spectacles who decried profligacy and waste, were devoted to their communities and supported the sort of prosperity that raises all ships. They were good-hearted people who vanquished the gnarlier elements of their party, the paranoid Roosevelt-haters, the flat Earthers and Prohibitionists, the antipapist antiforeigner element. The genial Eisenhower was their man, a genuine American hero of D-Day, who made it OK for reasonable people to vote Republican. He brought the Korean War to a stalemate, produced the Interstate Highway System, declined to rescue the French colonial army in Vietnam, and gave us a period of peace and prosperity, in which (oddly) American arts and letters flourished and higher education burgeoned—and there was a degree of plain decency in the country. Fifties Republicans were giants compared to today’s. Richard Nixon was the last Republican leader to feel a Christian obligation toward the poor.

In the years between Nixon and Newt Gingrich, the party migrated southward down the Twisting Trail of Rhetoric and sneered at the idea of public service and became the Scourge of Liberalism, the Great Crusade Against the Sixties, the Death Star of Government, a gang of pirates that diverted and fascinated the media by their sheer chutzpah, such as the misty-eyed flag-waving of Ronald Reagan who, while George McGovern flew bombers in World War II, took a pass and made training films in Long Beach. The Nixon moderate vanished like the passenger pigeon, purged by a legion of angry white men who rose to power on pure punk politics. “Bipartisanship is another term of date rape,” says Grover Norquist, the Sid Vicious of the GOP. “I don’t want to abolish government. I simply want to reduce it to the size where I can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub.” The boy has Oedipal problems and government is his daddy.

The party of Lincoln and Liberty was transmogrified into the party of hairy-backed swamp developers and corporate shills, faith-based economists, fundamentalist bullies with Bibles, Christians of convenience, freelance racists, misanthropic frat boys, shrieking midgets of AM radio, tax cheats, nihilists in golf pants, brownshirts in pinstripes, sweatshop tycoons, hacks, fakirs, aggressive dorks, Lamborghini libertarians, people who believe Neil Armstrong’s moonwalk was filmed in Roswell, New Mexico, little honkers out to diminish the rest of us, Newt’s evil spawn and their Etch-A-Sketch president, a dull and rigid man suspicious of the free flow of information and of secular institutions, whose philosophy is a jumble of badly sutured body parts trying to walk. Republicans: The No.1 reason the rest of the world thinks we’re deaf, dumb and dangerous.

Rich ironies abound! Lies pop up like toadstools in the forest! Wild swine crowd round the public trough! Outrageous gerrymandering! Pocket lining on a massive scale! Paid lobbyists sit in committee rooms and write legislation to alleviate the suffering of billionaires! Hypocrisies shine like cat turds in the moonlight! O Mark Twain, where art thou at this hour? Arise and behold the Gilded Age reincarnated gaudier than ever, upholding great wealth as the sure sign of Divine Grace.

Here in 2004, George W. Bush is running for reelection on a platform of tragedy—the single greatest failure of national defense in our history, the attacks of 9/11 in which 19 men with box cutters put this nation into a tailspin, a failure the details of which the White House fought to keep secret even as it ran the country into hock up to the hubcaps, thanks to generous tax cuts for the well-fixed, hoping to lead us into a box canyon of debt that will render government impotent, even as we engage in a war against a small country that was undertaken for the president’s personal satisfaction but sold to the American public on the basis of brazen misinformation, a war whose purpose is to distract us from an enormous transfer of wealth taking place in this country, flowing upward, and the deception is working beautifully.

The concentration of wealth and power in the hands of the few is the death knell of democracy. No republic in the history of humanity has survived this. The election of 2004 will say something about what happens to ours. The omens are not good.

Our beloved land has been fogged with fear—fear, the greatest political strategy ever. An ominous silence, distant sirens, a drumbeat of whispered warnings and alarms to keep the public uneasy and silence the opposition. And in a time of vague fear, you can appoint bullet-brained judges, strip the bark off the Constitution, eviscerate federal regulatory agencies, bring public education to a standstill, stupefy the press, lavish gorgeous tax breaks on the rich.

There is a stink drifting through this election year. It isn’t the Florida recount or the Supreme Court decision. No, it’s 9/11 that we keep coming back to. It wasn’t the “end of innocence,” or a turning point in our history, or a cosmic occurrence, it was an event, a lapse of security. And patriotism shouldn’t prevent people from asking hard questions of the man who was purportedly in charge of national security at the time.

Whenever I think of those New Yorkers hurrying along Park Place or getting off the No.1 Broadway local, hustling toward their office on the 90th floor, the morning paper under their arms, I think of that non-reader George W. Bush and how he hopes to exploit those people with a little economic uptick, maybe the capture of Osama, cruise to victory in November and proceed to get some serious nation-changing done in his second term.

This year, as in the past, Republicans will portray us Democrats as embittered academics, desiccated Unitarians, whacked-out hippies and communards, people who talk to telephone poles, the party of the Deadheads. They will wave enormous flags and wow over and over the footage of firemen in the wreckage of the World Trade Center and bodies being carried out and they will lie about their economic policies with astonishing enthusiasm.

The Union is what needs defending this year. Government of Enron and by Halliburton and for the Southern Baptists is not the same as what Lincoln spoke of. This gang of Pithecanthropus Republicanii has humbugged us to death on terrorism and tax cuts for the comfy and school prayer and flag burning and claimed the right to know what books we read and to dump their sewage upstream from the town and clear-cut the forests and gut the IRS and mark up the constitution on behalf of intolerance and promote the corporate takeover of the public airwaves and to hell with anybody who opposes them.

This is a great country, and it wasn’t made so by angry people. We have a sacred duty to bequeath it to our grandchildren in better shape than however we found it. We have a long way to go and we’re not getting any younger.

Dante said that the hottest place in Hell is reserved for those who in time of crisis remain neutral, so I have spoken my piece, and thank you, dear reader. It’s a beautiful world, rain or shine, and there is more to life than winning.

October 16, 2004

New York Times comes through

John Kerry for President

Senator John Kerry goes toward the election with a base that is built more on opposition to George W. Bush than loyalty to his own candidacy. But over the last year we have come to know Mr. Kerry as more than just an alternative to the status quo. We like what we've seen. He has qualities that could be the basis for a great chief executive, not just a modest improvement on the incumbent.

We have been impressed with Mr. Kerry's wide knowledge and clear thinking - something that became more apparent once he was reined in by that two-minute debate light. He is blessedly willing to re-evaluate decisions when conditions change. And while Mr. Kerry's service in Vietnam was first over-promoted and then over-pilloried, his entire life has been devoted to public service, from the war to a series of elected offices. He strikes us, above all, as a man with a strong moral core.

There is no denying that this race is mainly about Mr. Bush's disastrous tenure. Nearly four years ago, after the Supreme Court awarded him the presidency, Mr. Bush came into office amid popular expectation that he would acknowledge his lack of a mandate by sticking close to the center. Instead, he turned the government over to the radical right.

Mr. Bush installed John Ashcroft, a favorite of the far right with a history of insensitivity to civil liberties, as attorney general. He sent the Senate one ideological, activist judicial nominee after another. He moved quickly to implement a far-reaching anti-choice agenda including censorship of government Web sites and a clampdown on embryonic stem cell research. He threw the government's weight against efforts by the University of Michigan to give minority students an edge in admission, as it did for students from rural areas or the offspring of alumni.

When the nation fell into recession, the president remained fixated not on generating jobs but rather on fighting the right wing's war against taxing the wealthy. As a result, money that could have been used to strengthen Social Security evaporated, as did the chance to provide adequate funding for programs the president himself had backed. No Child Left Behind, his signature domestic program, imposed higher standards on local school systems without providing enough money to meet them.

If Mr. Bush had wanted to make a mark on an issue on which Republicans and Democrats have long made common cause, he could have picked the environment. Christie Whitman, the former New Jersey governor chosen to run the Environmental Protection Agency, came from that bipartisan tradition. Yet she left after three years of futile struggle against the ideologues and industry lobbyists Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney had installed in every other important environmental post. The result has been a systematic weakening of regulatory safeguards across the entire spectrum of environmental issues, from clean air to wilderness protection.

The president who lost the popular vote got a real mandate on Sept. 11, 2001. With the grieving country united behind him, Mr. Bush had an unparalleled opportunity to ask for almost any shared sacrifice. The only limit was his imagination.

He asked for another tax cut and the war against Iraq.

The president's refusal to drop his tax-cutting agenda when the nation was gearing up for war is perhaps the most shocking example of his inability to change his priorities in the face of drastically altered circumstances. Mr. Bush did not just starve the government of the money it needed for his own education initiative or the Medicare drug bill. He also made tax cuts a higher priority than doing what was needed for America's security; 90 percent of the cargo unloaded every day in the nation's ports still goes uninspected.

Along with the invasion of Afghanistan, which had near unanimous international and domestic support, Mr. Bush and his attorney general put in place a strategy for a domestic antiterror war that had all the hallmarks of the administration's normal method of doing business: a Nixonian obsession with secrecy, disrespect for civil liberties and inept management.

American citizens were detained for long periods without access to lawyers or family members. Immigrants were rounded up and forced to languish in what the Justice Department's own inspector general found were often "unduly harsh" conditions. Men captured in the Afghan war were held incommunicado with no right to challenge their confinement. The Justice Department became a cheerleader for skirting decades-old international laws and treaties forbidding the brutal treatment of prisoners taken during wartime.

Mr. Ashcroft appeared on TV time and again to announce sensational arrests of people who turned out to be either innocent, harmless braggarts or extremely low-level sympathizers of Osama bin Laden who, while perhaps wishing to do something terrible, lacked the means. The Justice Department cannot claim one major successful terrorism prosecution, and has squandered much of the trust and patience the American people freely gave in 2001. Other nations, perceiving that the vast bulk of the prisoners held for so long at Guant?namo Bay came from the same line of ineffectual incompetents or unlucky innocents, and seeing the awful photographs from the Abu Ghraib prison in Baghdad, were shocked that the nation that was supposed to be setting the world standard for human rights could behave that way.

Like the tax cuts, Mr. Bush's obsession with Saddam Hussein seemed closer to zealotry than mere policy. He sold the war to the American people, and to Congress, as an antiterrorist campaign even though Iraq had no known working relationship with Al Qaeda. His most frightening allegation was that Saddam Hussein was close to getting nuclear weapons. It was based on two pieces of evidence. One was a story about attempts to purchase critical materials from Niger, and it was the product of rumor and forgery. The other evidence, the purchase of aluminum tubes that the administration said were meant for a nuclear centrifuge, was concocted by one low-level analyst and had been thoroughly debunked by administration investigators and international vetting. Top members of the administration knew this, but the selling went on anyway. None of the president's chief advisers have ever been held accountable for their misrepresentations to the American people or for their mismanagement of the war that followed.

The international outrage over the American invasion is now joined by a sense of disdain for the incompetence of the effort. Moderate Arab leaders who have attempted to introduce a modicum of democracy are tainted by their connection to an administration that is now radioactive in the Muslim world. Heads of rogue states, including Iran and North Korea, have been taught decisively that the best protection against a pre-emptive American strike is to acquire nuclear weapons themselves.

We have specific fears about what would happen in a second Bush term, particularly regarding the Supreme Court. The record so far gives us plenty of cause for worry. Thanks to Mr. Bush, Jay Bybee, the author of an infamous Justice Department memo justifying the use of torture as an interrogation technique, is now a federal appeals court judge. Another Bush selection, J. Leon Holmes, a federal judge in Arkansas, has written that wives must be subordinate to their husbands and compared abortion rights activists to Nazis.

Mr. Bush remains enamored of tax cuts but he has never stopped Republican lawmakers from passing massive spending, even for projects he dislikes, like increased farm aid.

If he wins re-election, domestic and foreign financial markets will know the fiscal recklessness will continue. Along with record trade imbalances, that increases the chances of a financial crisis, like an uncontrolled decline of the dollar, and higher long-term interest rates.

The Bush White House has always given us the worst aspects of the American right without any of the advantages. We get the radical goals but not the efficient management. The Department of Education's handling of the No Child Left Behind Act has been heavily politicized and inept. The Department of Homeland Security is famous for its useless alerts and its inability to distribute antiterrorism aid according to actual threats. Without providing enough troops to properly secure Iraq, the administration has managed to so strain the resources of our armed forces that the nation is unprepared to respond to a crisis anywhere else in the world.

Mr. Kerry has the capacity to do far, far better. He has a willingness - sorely missing in Washington these days - to reach across the aisle. We are relieved that he is a strong defender of civil rights, that he would remove unnecessary restrictions on stem cell research and that he understands the concept of separation of church and state. We appreciate his sensible plan to provide health coverage for most of the people who currently do without.

Mr. Kerry has an aggressive and in some cases innovative package of ideas about energy, aimed at addressing global warming and oil dependency. He is a longtime advocate of deficit reduction. In the Senate, he worked with John McCain in restoring relations between the United States and Vietnam, and led investigations of the way the international financial system has been gamed to permit the laundering of drug and terror money. He has always understood that America's appropriate role in world affairs is as leader of a willing community of nations, not in my-way-or-the-highway domination.

We look back on the past four years with hearts nearly breaking, both for the lives unnecessarily lost and for the opportunities so casually wasted. Time and again, history invited George W. Bush to play a heroic role, and time and again he chose the wrong course. We believe that with John Kerry as president, the nation will do better.

Voting for president is a leap of faith. A candidate can explain his positions in minute detail and wind up governing with a hostile Congress that refuses to let him deliver. A disaster can upend the best-laid plans. All citizens can do is mix guesswork and hope, examining what the candidates have done in the past, their apparent priorities and their general character. It's on those three grounds that we enthusiastically endorse John Kerry for president.

October 29, 2004

Bush's Policy Stance

bushfinger.jpg

Bush's foreign policy reduced...
Bush's domestic policy reduced...
Bush's war on terrorism...
Besides Bush saying a hearty "fuck you" to other countries, the American people, and Iraqis, what has he accomplished?

November 5, 2004

Wrongs, Religious Wrongs

Ok, no more politics I've been telling myself. The reality is too grim. That people who do not believe in evolution, and who themselves can not evolve from their own dark age mindset are running the country is truly frightening. The dollar is falling as the world reacts in disbelief that we have chosen (by a plurality this time) to re-elect the most divisive figure in the world and at home. It's an alarming and depressing fact that as Fafnir reported "Eleven States voted to Define Marriage tonight...and they have Defined it as a slow-moving, thick-skulled poison-spitting reptile that hates queers. America has spoken." Fear and hate won this election.

But there's hope that the next four years will prove to be better and moderate policies will supplant radical thinking. I hope that the next generation of voters will be more tolerant, inclusive, reality-based and less ideological, fearful and insular. There's always some room for optimism. There's always: Barack Obama 2008!

May 17, 2005

Unbalanced World, Part II: Currency Adjustment

Today, the Treasury Department issued a report stating that China's currency peg is close to what it would classify as manipulation of foreign exchange. The currency peg has been around since 1994, but the growing trade deficit and political pressures in the U.S., especially from the manufacturing (export-competing) industries, is bringing the issue to a head. There are two trends that created this problem. First, China is growing and exporting more as they become more efficient at manufacturing. Second, the U.S. is spending much more than it earns. When you spend more than you earn, your currency tends to devalue. China is pegged to the dollar so it also devalues. And since Chinese goods get cheaper as a result, especially to non-pegged currencies such as Euros, its exports increase.

It's important to see that the U.S. is partly to blame by becoming the biggest debtor nation in the world, but there's not a mention of this anywhere in the Treasury Department report nor in the general U.S. media. Yes, China should move off of the peg, but the U.S. has to balance its budgets and increase national savings. Those Bush tax cuts and ballooning war costs are partly responsible. Hearing the U.S. Treasury Department simply talk about the Renminbi Peg is like watching two drunk drivers crash into each other and one yelling to the other, "Hey, you're drunk!"

On a side note, if China adjusts its peg expect to see a lower demand for American Treasury Bills and thus a rise in the interest rate here in the U.S. When your line of credit gets cancelled, you have to spend what you earn, and invest less in non-productive assets like housing and cars. This happens at a macro level too. It will probably mean the end of the housing bubble in the U.S. and a slow shift of investment into productive assets like industrial equipment and education that will allow the U.S. to produce tradable goods in the future in order to pay off some of its debts. If it doesn't, it will mean a large negative real adjustment in U.S. consumption -- recession.

So, is the Bush Administration for bashing China or against it? Brad Setzer

Today, depending on how you want to look at it, the Bush Administration either upped the heat on China by signaling that it will declare China a manipulator the next time, or wimped out. Setting the clock ticking might buy the Administration the ability to push the Congressional vote on Schumer-Graham off until after October. But splitting the difference also risks pleasing no one.

On one hand, it is pretty clear that China's commitment to its current peg is "preventing effective balance of payments adjustment" -- the key technical criteria for currency manipulation.

On the other hand, it is not entirely obvious the US really wants "effective balance of payments adjustment." Debtor countries usually quite like getting the financing needed to keep running up their debts. Apart from the manufacturing sector, most of the US seems to quite like not paying enough taxes to finance the current level of government spending, cheap imports that keep down inflation and low interest rates that push up housing prices. Real adjustment means shifting resources out of real estate and into the production of tradable goods and services. Right now, not adjusting seems a lot more fun.

February 8, 2008

Electability?

Surprisingly good analogy by David Brooks.

Questions for Dr. Retail By DAVID BROOKS

QUESTION: Dr. Retail, now that the Democratic presidential race has entered its long, bloody slog phase, I figured it was time to get a fresh perspective. Can you explain to me what it's all about?

DR. RETAIL: Why do you bother me with simple problems? Listen, the essential competition in many consumer sectors is between commodity providers and experience providers, the companies that just deliver product and the companies that deliver a sensation, too. There's Safeway, and then there is Whole Foods. There's the PC, and then there?€™s the Mac. There are Holiday Inns, and there are W Hotels. There's Walgreens, and there's The Body Shop.

Hillary Clinton is a classic commodity provider. She caters to the less-educated, less-pretentious consumer. As Ron Brownstein of The National Journal pointed out on Wednesday, she won the non-college-educated voters by 22 points in California, 32 points in Massachusetts and 54 points in Arkansas. She offers voters no frills, just commodities: tax credits, federal subsidies and scholarships. She's got good programs at good prices.

Barack Obama is an experience provider. He attracts the educated consumer. In the last Pew Research national survey, he led among people with college degrees by 22 points. Educated people get all emotional when they shop and vote. They want an uplifting experience so they can persuade themselves that they're not engaging in a grubby self-interested transaction. They fall for all that zero-carbon footprint, locally grown, community-enhancing Third Place hype. They want cultural signifiers that enrich their lives with meaning.

Obama offers to defeat cynicism with hope. Apparently he's going to turn politics into a form of sharing. Have you noticed that he's actually carried into his rallies by a flock of cherubs while the heavens open up with the Hallelujah Chorus? I wonder how he does that.

QUESTION: But why would Democratic votes break down so starkly along educational lines?

DR. RETAIL: The consumer marketplace has been bifurcating for years! It's happening because the educated and uneducated lead different sorts of lives. Educated people are not only growing richer than less-educated people, but their lifestyles are diverging as well. A generation ago, educated families and less-educated families looked the same, but now high school graduates divorce at twice the rate of college graduates. High school grads are much more likely to have kids out of wedlock. High school grads are much more likely to be obese. They're much more likely to smoke and to die younger.

Their attitudes are different. High school grads are much less optimistic than college grads. They express less social trust. They feel less safe in public. They report having fewer friends and lower aspirations. The less educated speak the dialect of struggle; the more educated, the dialect of self-fulfillment

Did you hear the message of Clinton's speech Tuesday night? It's a rotten world out there. Regular folks are getting the shaft. They need someone who'll fight tougher, work harder and put loyalty over independence.

Then did you see the Hopemeister's speech? His schtick makes sense if you've got a basic level of security in your life, if you're looking up, not down. Meanwhile, Obama's people are so taken with their messiah that soon they'll be selling flowers at airports and arranging mass weddings. There's a "Yes We Can" video floating around YouTube in which a bunch of celebrities like Scarlett Johansson and the guy from the Black Eyed Peas are singing the words to an Obama speech in escalating states of righteousness and ecstasy. If that video doesn't creep out normal working-class voters, then nothing will.

QUESTION: Your cynicism is really interfering with my vibe. I don't think you're feeling the fierce urgency of now.

DR. RETAIL: Believe me, those of us who bill by the hour completely feel the fierce urgency of now. As John Edwards would say, this is personal with me.

QUESTION: So does this mean the Democrats are fundamentally divided?

DR. RETAIL: Why do you political people always think in either/or terms? No. Safeway and Whole Foods people shop in each other's stores. They just feel less at home.

QUESTION: So who's going to win?

DR. RETAIL: Observe the marketplace. The next states on the primary calendar have tons of college-educated Obamaphile voters. Maryland is 5th among the 50 states, Virginia is 6th. But later on, we get the Hillary-friendly states. Ohio is 40th in college education. Pennsylvania is 32nd.

But it'll still be tied after all that. The superdelegates will pick the nominee: the party honchos, the deal-makers, the donors, the machine. Swinging those people takes a level of cynicism even Dr. Retail can't pretend to understand. That's Tammany Hall. That's the court at Versailles under Louis XIV.

I disagree with the conclusion. Once it goes to the superdelegates it will be a question of electability because superdelegates, being elected Democrat officials and other party affiliates have in their self-interest more so than the regular voter to pick the candidate that will increase Democratic control in Washington Those who vote Obama will say he's more electable and will bring a majority to the house and senate with him. If Obama loses, people will dismiss Hillary supporters as she wouldn't've stood a chance. But if Hillary loses, Obama superdelegates will commit mutiny. But there's the possibility that Hillary wins, right? What if Hillary wins? Nothing will change in Blue states and no gains will be made in Purple or Red states. Based on these considerations I think the superdelegates will vote Obama in larger numbers than are predicted. And I shop both Walmart and Wholefoods with equal comfort.

July 1, 2008

RMB and the dollar -- falling off a cliff

5y-rmb-dollar.bmp

Look at that! Doesn't it look like RMB and dollar held hands, ran as fast as they could, and then lept of a cliff? It makes me think about gravity models of trade...

Inflation in the U.S. has been kept at bay in part because of low tradable prices due to China holding the RMB-Dollar exchange rate constant (increasing the demand for dollars by buying up US treasuries and selling RMB), but it has been creeping up ever since China loosened its unofficial peg to the dollar. It's got a ways to go before RMB-dollar hits about 4-1 based on my own gut feelings of purchasing price parity. But if it keeps going -- the way it has for the last three years -- that'll come very soon. If I were a real estate broker in Malibu or NYC, I'd be learning Chinese or Russian.*

The devaluation of the Dollar also means we're going to be importing inflation (among other causes such as our loose monetary policy to save our banks and increases in commodity prices) and that's why I tell myself that I need my dollars in real assets like old motorcycles.

commodities.JPG

Also, I feel pretty good about what I said back in May, 2005.

* Because the Europeans are more better well-spoken than we is.

About united states

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